The men’s singles draw at the Australian Open 2026 is entering a crucial stage as the tournament reaches the Third Round (1/16 Finals). Matches scheduled for 23–24 January will determine who truly belongs in the second week of the season’s first Grand Slam.
At this point, margins become thinner: established contenders are expected to assert control, while in-form outsiders look to exploit any vulnerability. Below is the full Third Round schedule, followed by expert predictions with tactical and contextual analysis for each matchup.
Australian Open 2026 – Men’s Singles Third Round (1/16 Finals) Schedule
23 January 2026
- Learner Tien vs Nuno Borges
- Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan
- Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet
- Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev
- Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie
- Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur
- Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
24 January 2026
- Karen Khachanov vs Luciano Darderi
- Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea
- Lorenzo Musetti vs TBD
- Botic van de Zandschulp vs Novak Djokovic
- Jakub Mensik vs Ethan Quinn
- Remaining matchups – TBD
Expert Predictions and Match Analysis
Learner Tien vs Nuno Borges
Prediction: Tien vs Borges – Tien in 4 sets
Tien’s court coverage and ability to redirect pace have stood out throughout the opening rounds. Borges is steady and disciplined, but over a longer match Tien’s superior rally tolerance and return game should gradually create separation.
Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan
Prediction: Medvedev vs Marozsan – Medvedev in 4 sets
Marozsan’s aggressive first-strike tennis can apply early pressure, yet Medvedev’s deep court positioning and defensive elasticity make him exceptionally difficult to break down. As rallies extend, the matchup increasingly favors the former champion.
Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Prediction: Paul vs Davidovich Fokina – Paul in 5 sets
This is one of the most evenly balanced contests of the round. Davidovich Fokina brings creativity and speed, but Paul’s improved serve and calmer shot selection in decisive moments give him a narrow edge in a likely five-set battle.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet
Prediction: Alcaraz vs Moutet – Alcaraz in straight sets
Moutet’s variety and left-handed patterns can disrupt rhythm, yet Alcaraz’s athleticism and ability to instantly flip defense into offense should keep him firmly in control. Expect flashes of brilliance, but not sustained resistance.
Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev
Prediction: Cerundolo vs Rublev – Rublev in 4 sets
Cerundolo thrives when exchanges slow down, but Rublev’s flat, high-tempo forehand is particularly effective on Melbourne’s hard courts. If Rublev dictates baseline pace, he should steadily pull away.
Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie
Prediction: Zverev vs Norrie – Zverev in 4 sets
Norrie’s consistency and left-handed angles often keep matches competitive, but Zverev’s serve remains the decisive factor. Provided Zverev maintains aggression, he should control the majority of key moments.
Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur
Prediction: Tiafoe vs de Minaur – de Minaur in 4 sets
On home soil, de Minaur’s speed, counterpunching, and crowd support are major assets. Tiafoe’s explosiveness can turn sets quickly, but de Minaur’s ability to extend rallies and force errors gives him the edge.
Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Prediction: Bublik vs Etcheverry – Bublik in 4 sets
Bublik’s serve and improvisational shot-making have been highly effective so far. Etcheverry’s structured baseline game can punish lapses, but Bublik’s offensive ceiling is higher if he stays focused.
Karen Khachanov vs Luciano Darderi
Prediction: Khachanov vs Darderi – Khachanov in straight sets
Khachanov’s power from both wings and experience at this stage of Grand Slams should be decisive. Darderi has shown promise, but this represents a significant jump in intensity.
Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea
Prediction: Shelton vs Gea – Shelton in straight sets
Shelton’s left-handed serve and aggressive return positioning are tailor-made for hard courts. Unless Gea produces an exceptional serving performance, Shelton should remain in full control.
Lorenzo Musetti vs TBD
Prediction: Musetti to advance
Regardless of the opponent, Musetti’s variety, touch, and improved physical conditioning make him a strong favorite to reach the fourth round, especially if the match extends.
Botic van de Zandschulp vs Novak Djokovic
Prediction: van de Zandschulp vs Djokovic – Djokovic in straight sets
Djokovic’s return game and movement remain at an elite level. While van de Zandschulp is solid, he lacks the sustained firepower required to consistently challenge Djokovic over three winning sets.
Jakub Mensik vs Ethan Quinn
Prediction: Mensik vs Quinn – Mensik in 4 sets
Mensik’s serve and baseline aggression give him control in most exchanges. Quinn’s competitiveness may stretch the match, but Mensik’s composure in pressure moments should prevail.
Final Outlook
The Australian Open 2026 Third Round (1/16 Finals) marks the transition from early-round uncertainty to genuine Grand Slam tension. Leading contenders such as Alcaraz, Djokovic, Medvedev, and Zverev remain firmly on course, while players like Tien, Mensik, and Bublik continue to test the established hierarchy.
For the full Australian Open schedule, live results, and updated brackets, visit our dedicated tournament page with daily updates.
